DNDN - Dendreon Corp.
April 18, 2009 by Hot Stocks To Buy
Original Upgrade to Hot Buy on 4/18/09.
[DNDN] Dendreon stock - Hot stocks to buy entry price: $17 - $18.5
- Risk level: 10
- Profit potential: 8
- Price Target = $50
- Very risky in the near term, keep an eye on April 28th 2:20pm (CT)
On April the 16th we added Dendreon Corp. (DNDN) to our hot stocks to buy portfolio at the price of $18.15. Below you will see a few pointers as to why we have chosen to add Dendreon to our list of Hot Stock to buy. We’ve followed this stock for years and feel this is a great time to enter into the stock for those who have missed the previous purchase price of below $5. The recent news on Dendreon’s IMPACT results is just what the company needed and if the details on the news is as expected, this stock can see a rise to above $35 in the short term. Please also consider the risk that if Dendreon’s news on the 14th of April is revealed to be misleading, this stock can take a massive plunge back to below $5.
- Upgraded to from Sell to HOLD by Rodman & Renshaw on April 14th, 2009
- Upgraded by from Mkt Perform to Mkt Outperform by Brean Murray on April 16th, 2009
- Potential buyout candidate by big pharma (possibly Merck)
- On April 14th Dendreon issued a press release announcing that the pivotal Phase 3 IMPACT study of Provenge in men with advanced prostate cancer met its primary endpoint of improving overall survival compared to placebo control.
- On April 28th (2:20pm CT)the results from the IMPACT studies will be presented during a plenary session at the American Urological Association’s Annual Meeting
- Dendreon’s other drug Neuvenge is on the horizon
Hot Stock to Buy recommends taking a small holding in Dendreon and increasing the holding on any non news related dips in the next week. Dendreon is an extremely high risk stock with high potential in the near term. Price target within 6 months is $50.
Just looking at the potential and what we heard from the CEO, this stock is going to pop big. Assuming the data on Provenge is as good as we think, the stock company could be the next big thing.
It’s inevitable that from time to time some company develops something ground breaking, I believe this is one of those times. Think beyond Provenge and think about the approach and all the different applications beyond prostate cancer (e.g. breast, colon, etc.)
Soon to be a core holding in many funds.
papergains
Here’s the link again to some analysis Hot Stocks removed earlier.
“….if Dendreon’s news on the 14th of April is revealed to be misleading….” Mitch Gold (DNDN CEO) will be going to jail!
However, it seems so unlikely that the DNDN data will be ambiguous that even Jonathan Aschoff (who hates DNDN and Provenge) has changed his assessment of the potential downside. This is a no-brainer stock for the next 12 months. Stock will likely pop next Tuesday when the data are described at AUA and then will stay high as FDA approval is anticipated and ultimately obtained. Others have set a target pps of $36 - $72.
Given the dearth of therapies for the ~20,000 patients/year who die of metastatic prostate CA, I would say that is a good ball park range. Also, since Provenge is apparently safe, the next trials will be for adjuvant and neo-adjuvant uses of Provenge in earlier stage patients, of which there are ~200,000 new diagnoses/year. The upside for Provenge is huge. Suffice to say, I am bullish on DNDN.
(PS They also have the conceptually related Neuvenge for patients with breast CA in Phase II trials.)